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Heřmanice Slezská vs Beskyd Frenštát — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Heřmanice Slezská
Heřmanice Slezská
FT
0 – 4
Beskyd Frenštát
Beskyd Frenštát
9/4/20214. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 6Stadion Heřmanice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Heřmanice Slezská28%
×Draw20%
Beskyd Frenštát52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heřmanice Slezská
1.69
Beskyd Frenštát
2.33

Beskyd Frenštát creates 38% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 60 away

creates per match

Heřmanice Slezská
1.00
Beskyd Frenštát
1.23

allows per match

Heřmanice Slezská
3.42
Beskyd Frenštát
2.37

finishing

Heřmanice Slezská+0.00on par
Beskyd Frenštát+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heřmanice Slezská ↓

Beskyd Frenštát →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Heřmanice Slezská or draw
48%
Heřmanice Slezská or Beskyd Frenštát
80%
Draw or Beskyd Frenštát
72%

Winning margin

Heřmanice Slezská wins by 2+
13%
Beskyd Frenštát wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Heřmanice Slezská 1+ goals
82%
Heřmanice Slezská 2+ goals
50%
Heřmanice Slezská 3+ goals
24%
Beskyd Frenštát 1+ goals
90%
Beskyd Frenštát 2+ goals
67%
Beskyd Frenštát 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Heřmanice Slezská (draw refunded)
35%
Beskyd Frenštát (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heřmanice Slezská at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.42 · 19 matches

Beskyd Frenštát away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.37 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heřmanice Slezská attack 1.00 + Beskyd Frenštát defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.69

Beskyd Frenštát attack 1.23 + Heřmanice Slezská defence 3.42 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Heřmanice Slezská scores more
28%
level
20%
Beskyd Frenštát scores more
52%

Beskyd Frenštát at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Beskyd Frenštát will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Heřmanice Slezská vs Beskyd Frenštát

Beskyd Frenštát beat Heřmanice Slezská 4-0 in 4. liga - Divizie F on September 4, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Heřmanice in Ostrava.