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Beskyd Frenštát vs Heřmanice Slezská — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Beskyd Frenštát
Beskyd Frenštát
CANC
14:30
Heřmanice Slezská
Heřmanice Slezská
5/2/20214. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 18Stadion Na Nivách

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Beskyd Frenštát74%
×Draw14%
Heřmanice Slezská12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beskyd Frenštát
3.00
Heřmanice Slezská
1.14

Beskyd Frenštát creates 163% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 17 away

creates per match

Beskyd Frenštát
1.59
Heřmanice Slezská
0.47

allows per match

Beskyd Frenštát
1.80
Heřmanice Slezská
4.41

finishing

Beskyd Frenštát+0.00on par
Heřmanice Slezská+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beskyd Frenštát ↓

Heřmanice Slezská →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Beskyd Frenštát or draw
88%
Beskyd Frenštát or Heřmanice Slezská
86%
Draw or Heřmanice Slezská
26%

Winning margin

Beskyd Frenštát wins by 2+
54%
Heřmanice Slezská wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Beskyd Frenštát 1+ goals
95%
Beskyd Frenštát 2+ goals
79%
Beskyd Frenštát 3+ goals
56%
Heřmanice Slezská 1+ goals
68%
Heřmanice Slezská 2+ goals
32%
Heřmanice Slezská 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Beskyd Frenštát (draw refunded)
86%
Heřmanice Slezská (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beskyd Frenštát at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.80 · 61 matches

Heřmanice Slezská away — creates 0.47, concedes 4.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beskyd Frenštát attack 1.59 + Heřmanice Slezská defence 4.41 → ÷2 → 3.00

Heřmanice Slezská attack 0.47 + Beskyd Frenštát defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Beskyd Frenštát scores more
74%
level
14%
Heřmanice Slezská scores more
12%

Beskyd Frenštát at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Beskyd Frenštát will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Beskyd Frenštát host Heřmanice Slezská

May 2, 2021: Beskyd Frenštát take on Heřmanice Slezská in 4. liga - Divizie F. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Beskyd Frenštát host Heřmanice Slezská at Stadion Na Nivách.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.