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Herentals vs Cranborne Bullets — Premier Soccer League 2026

Herentals
Herentals
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cranborne Bullets
Cranborne Bullets
10/1/2022Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 29National Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Herentals48%
×Draw29%
Cranborne Bullets23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Herentals
1.25
Cranborne Bullets
0.77

Herentals creates 62% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 34 away

creates per match

Herentals
1.17
Cranborne Bullets
0.71

allows per match

Herentals
0.83
Cranborne Bullets
1.32

finishing

Herentals+0.00on par
Cranborne Bullets+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Herentals ↓

Cranborne Bullets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Herentals or draw
77%
Herentals or Cranborne Bullets
71%
Draw or Cranborne Bullets
52%

Winning margin

Herentals wins by 2+
22%
Cranborne Bullets wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Herentals 1+ goals
71%
Herentals 2+ goals
36%
Herentals 3+ goals
13%
Cranborne Bullets 1+ goals
54%
Cranborne Bullets 2+ goals
18%
Cranborne Bullets 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Herentals (draw refunded)
68%
Cranborne Bullets (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Herentals at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 96 matches

Cranborne Bullets away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.32 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Herentals attack 1.17 + Cranborne Bullets defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.25

Cranborne Bullets attack 0.71 + Herentals defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Herentals scores more
48%
level
29%
Cranborne Bullets scores more
23%

Herentals at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Herentals will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Herentals 1–0 Cranborne Bullets

Herentals beat Cranborne Bullets 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on October 1, 2022.

The match was played at National Sports Stadium in Harare.