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Cranborne Bullets vs Herentals — Premier Soccer League 2026

Cranborne Bullets
Cranborne Bullets
FT
1 – 0
Herentals
Herentals
4/24/2022Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 12Sakubva Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Cranborne Bullets32%
×Draw35%
Herentals33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cranborne Bullets
0.81
Herentals
0.82

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 95 away

creates per match

Cranborne Bullets
0.65
Herentals
0.74

allows per match

Cranborne Bullets
0.91
Herentals
0.98

finishing

Cranborne Bullets+0.00on par
Herentals+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Under
  • Under78
  • Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cranborne Bullets ↓

Herentals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–020%
0–116%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
80%20%1.5
48%52%2.5
22%78%3.5
8%92%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Cranborne Bullets or draw
67%
Cranborne Bullets or Herentals
65%
Draw or Herentals
68%

Winning margin

Cranborne Bullets wins by 2+
10%
Herentals wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Cranborne Bullets 1+ goals
56%
Cranborne Bullets 2+ goals
19%
Cranborne Bullets 3+ goals
5%
Herentals 1+ goals
56%
Herentals 2+ goals
20%
Herentals 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Cranborne Bullets (draw refunded)
50%
Herentals (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cranborne Bullets at home — creates 0.65, concedes 0.91 · 34 matches

Herentals away — creates 0.74, concedes 0.98 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cranborne Bullets attack 0.65 + Herentals defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.81

Herentals attack 0.74 + Cranborne Bullets defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 33%?"

Cranborne Bullets scores more
32%
level
35%
Herentals scores more
33%

Herentals at 33% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 33% does not mean "Herentals will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Cranborne Bullets 1–0 Herentals

Cranborne Bullets beat Herentals 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on April 24, 2022.

The match was played at Sakubva Stadium in Mutare.