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Hercules vs Harkemase Boys — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Hercules
Hercules
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Harkemase Boys
Harkemase Boys
9/21/2024Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Girone A - 6Sportpark Voordorp

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Hercules45%
×Draw23%
Harkemase Boys32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hercules
1.81
Harkemase Boys
1.48

Hercules creates 22% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 98 away

creates per match

Hercules
2.04
Harkemase Boys
1.68

allows per match

Hercules
1.29
Harkemase Boys
1.59

finishing

Hercules+0.00on par
Harkemase Boys+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hercules ↓

Harkemase Boys →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Hercules or draw
68%
Hercules or Harkemase Boys
77%
Draw or Harkemase Boys
55%

Winning margin

Hercules wins by 2+
25%
Harkemase Boys wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Hercules 1+ goals
84%
Hercules 2+ goals
54%
Hercules 3+ goals
27%
Harkemase Boys 1+ goals
77%
Harkemase Boys 2+ goals
43%
Harkemase Boys 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Hercules (draw refunded)
59%
Harkemase Boys (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hercules at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.29 · 51 matches

Harkemase Boys away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.59 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hercules attack 2.04 + Harkemase Boys defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.81

Harkemase Boys attack 1.68 + Hercules defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Hercules scores more
45%
level
23%
Harkemase Boys scores more
32%

Hercules at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Hercules will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hercules vs Harkemase Boys

Harkemase Boys beat Hercules 4-2 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on September 21, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Voordorp in Utrecht.