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Harkemase Boys vs Hercules — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Harkemase Boys
Harkemase Boys
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Hercules
Hercules
3/29/2025Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Girone A - 23Sportpark de Bosk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Harkemase Boys47%
×Draw23%
Hercules31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Harkemase Boys
1.84
Hercules
1.45

Harkemase Boys creates 27% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 51 away

creates per match

Harkemase Boys
1.93
Hercules
1.51

allows per match

Harkemase Boys
1.39
Hercules
1.76

finishing

Harkemase Boys+0.00on par
Hercules+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Harkemase Boys ↓

Hercules →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Harkemase Boys or draw
69%
Harkemase Boys or Hercules
77%
Draw or Hercules
53%

Winning margin

Harkemase Boys wins by 2+
26%
Hercules wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Harkemase Boys 1+ goals
84%
Harkemase Boys 2+ goals
55%
Harkemase Boys 3+ goals
28%
Hercules 1+ goals
77%
Hercules 2+ goals
42%
Hercules 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Harkemase Boys (draw refunded)
60%
Hercules (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Harkemase Boys at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.39 · 97 matches

Hercules away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.76 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Harkemase Boys attack 1.93 + Hercules defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.84

Hercules attack 1.51 + Harkemase Boys defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Harkemase Boys scores more
47%
level
23%
Hercules scores more
31%

Harkemase Boys at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Harkemase Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Harkemase Boys vs Hercules

Harkemase Boys beat Hercules 3-1 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on March 29, 2025.

The match was played at Sportpark de Bosk in Harkema.