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Hercules vs DEM — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Hercules
Hercules
FT
5 – 2
HT: 3 – 2
DEM
DEM
10/6/2024Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Girone A - 8Sportpark Voordorp

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Hercules56%
×Draw21%
DEM23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hercules
2.11
DEM
1.27

Hercules creates 66% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 34 away

creates per match

Hercules
2.04
DEM
1.26

allows per match

Hercules
1.29
DEM
2.18

finishing

Hercules+0.00on par
DEM+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hercules ↓

DEM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Hercules or draw
77%
Hercules or DEM
79%
Draw or DEM
44%

Winning margin

Hercules wins by 2+
34%
DEM wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Hercules 1+ goals
88%
Hercules 2+ goals
62%
Hercules 3+ goals
35%
DEM 1+ goals
72%
DEM 2+ goals
36%
DEM 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Hercules (draw refunded)
71%
DEM (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hercules at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.29 · 51 matches

DEM away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.18 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hercules attack 2.04 + DEM defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.11

DEM attack 1.26 + Hercules defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Hercules scores more
56%
level
21%
DEM scores more
23%

Hercules at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Hercules will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hercules 5 – 2 DEM

Hercules beat DEM 5-2 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on October 6, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Voordorp in Utrecht.