Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hercules vs DEM — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

Hercules
Hercules
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
DEM
DEM
4/2/2023Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 27Sportpark Voordorp

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Hercules50%
×Draw23%
DEM27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hercules
1.81
DEM
1.26

Hercules creates 44% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 48 away

creates per match

Hercules
2.10
DEM
1.23

allows per match

Hercules
1.29
DEM
1.52

finishing

Hercules+0.00on par
DEM+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hercules ↓

DEM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Hercules or draw
73%
Hercules or DEM
77%
Draw or DEM
50%

Winning margin

Hercules wins by 2+
28%
DEM wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Hercules 1+ goals
84%
Hercules 2+ goals
54%
Hercules 3+ goals
27%
DEM 1+ goals
72%
DEM 2+ goals
36%
DEM 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Hercules (draw refunded)
65%
DEM (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hercules at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.29 · 48 matches

DEM away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.52 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hercules attack 2.10 + DEM defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.81

DEM attack 1.23 + Hercules defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Hercules scores more
50%
level
23%
DEM scores more
27%

Hercules at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Hercules will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hercules 1 – 2 DEM

DEM beat Hercules 2-1 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on April 2, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark Voordorp in Utrecht.