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Hércules II vs Castellón II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Hércules II
Hércules II
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Castellón II
Castellón II
2/12/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 20Ciudad Deportiva Antonio Valls

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Hércules II41%
×Draw27%
Castellón II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hércules II
1.33
Castellón II
1.14

Hércules II creates 17% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 67 away

creates per match

Hércules II
1.12
Castellón II
1.22

allows per match

Hércules II
1.06
Castellón II
1.54

finishing

Hércules II+0.00on par
Castellón II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hércules II ↓

Castellón II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Hércules II or draw
68%
Hércules II or Castellón II
73%
Draw or Castellón II
59%

Winning margin

Hércules II wins by 2+
19%
Castellón II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Hércules II 1+ goals
74%
Hércules II 2+ goals
38%
Hércules II 3+ goals
15%
Castellón II 1+ goals
68%
Castellón II 2+ goals
32%
Castellón II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Hércules II (draw refunded)
56%
Castellón II (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hércules II at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.06 · 78 matches

Castellón II away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.54 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hércules II attack 1.12 + Castellón II defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.33

Castellón II attack 1.22 + Hércules II defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hércules II scores more
41%
level
27%
Castellón II scores more
32%

Hércules II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hércules II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hércules II vs Castellón II

Hércules II and Castellón II drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on February 12, 2023.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Antonio Valls in Alicante.