Castellón II 2–1 Hércules II: Result & Stats

Castellón II

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Hércules II

10/9/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 5Camp de futbol Javier Marquina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Castellón II45%

×Draw28%

Hércules II27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Castellón IIExpected goals in this matchHércules II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.98

Castellón II

1.35

Hércules II

0.98

Castellón II creates 38% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 78 away

1.48

creates per match

0.81

1.16

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Castellón II

1.48

Hércules II

0.81

allows per match

Castellón II

1.16

Hércules II

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Castellón II+0.00on par

Hércules II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castellón II ↓

Hércules II →

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Castellón II or draw

73%

Castellón II or Hércules II

72%

Draw or Hércules II

55%

Winning margin

Castellón II wins by 2+

21%

Hércules II wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Castellón II 1+ goals

74%

Castellón II 2+ goals

39%

Castellón II 3+ goals

15%

Hércules II 1+ goals

62%

Hércules II 2+ goals

26%

Hércules II 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Castellón II (draw refunded)

62%

Hércules II (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Castellón II at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.16 · 67 matches

Hércules II away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.22 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Castellón II attack 1.48 + Hércules II defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.35

Hércules II attack 0.81 + Castellón II defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Castellón II scores more

45%

level

28%

Hércules II scores more

27%

Castellón II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Castellón II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Castellón II vs Hércules II

Castellón II beat Hércules II 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on October 9, 2022.

The match was played at Camp de futbol Javier Marquina in Castelló de la Plana.

Castellón II vs Hércules II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Castellón II vs Hércules II