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Hércules II vs Callosa Deportiva — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Hércules II
Hércules II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Callosa Deportiva
Callosa Deportiva
9/26/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 4Polideportivo Juan Antonio Samaranch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Hércules II44%
×Draw30%
Callosa Deportiva26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hércules II
1.20
Callosa Deportiva
0.86

Hércules II creates 40% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 18 away

creates per match

Hércules II
1.12
Callosa Deportiva
0.67

allows per match

Hércules II
1.06
Callosa Deportiva
1.28

finishing

Hércules II+0.00on par
Callosa Deportiva+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hércules II ↓

Callosa Deportiva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Hércules II or draw
74%
Hércules II or Callosa Deportiva
70%
Draw or Callosa Deportiva
56%

Winning margin

Hércules II wins by 2+
19%
Callosa Deportiva wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Hércules II 1+ goals
70%
Hércules II 2+ goals
34%
Hércules II 3+ goals
12%
Callosa Deportiva 1+ goals
58%
Callosa Deportiva 2+ goals
21%
Callosa Deportiva 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Hércules II (draw refunded)
62%
Callosa Deportiva (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hércules II at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.06 · 78 matches

Callosa Deportiva away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.28 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hércules II attack 1.12 + Callosa Deportiva defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.20

Callosa Deportiva attack 0.67 + Hércules II defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hércules II scores more
44%
level
30%
Callosa Deportiva scores more
26%

Hércules II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hércules II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hércules II vs Callosa Deportiva

Hércules II beat Callosa Deportiva 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on September 26, 2021.

The match was played at Polideportivo Juan Antonio Samaranch in Alacant.