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Callosa Deportiva vs Hércules II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Callosa Deportiva
Callosa Deportiva
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hércules II
Hércules II
1/23/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 23Campo de Fútbol El Palmeral

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Callosa Deportiva39%
×Draw32%
Hércules II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Callosa Deportiva
1.02
Hércules II
0.85

Callosa Deportiva creates 20% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 78 away

creates per match

Callosa Deportiva
0.83
Hércules II
0.81

allows per match

Callosa Deportiva
0.89
Hércules II
1.22

finishing

Callosa Deportiva+0.00on par
Hércules II+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Callosa Deportiva ↓

Hércules II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Callosa Deportiva or draw
71%
Callosa Deportiva or Hércules II
68%
Draw or Hércules II
61%

Winning margin

Callosa Deportiva wins by 2+
15%
Hércules II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Callosa Deportiva 1+ goals
64%
Callosa Deportiva 2+ goals
27%
Callosa Deportiva 3+ goals
8%
Hércules II 1+ goals
57%
Hércules II 2+ goals
21%
Hércules II 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Callosa Deportiva (draw refunded)
57%
Hércules II (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Callosa Deportiva at home — creates 0.83, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Hércules II away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.22 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Callosa Deportiva attack 0.83 + Hércules II defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.02

Hércules II attack 0.81 + Callosa Deportiva defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Callosa Deportiva scores more
39%
level
32%
Hércules II scores more
29%

Callosa Deportiva at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Callosa Deportiva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Callosa Deportiva vs Hércules II

Callosa Deportiva beat Hércules II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on January 23, 2022.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol El Palmeral in Callosa de Segura.