Hércules II 1–3 Alcoyano: Result & Stats

Hércules II

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Alcoyano

10/26/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 10Campo de Fútbol El Campello

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Hércules II24%

×Draw28%

Alcoyano48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hércules IIExpected goals in this matchAlcoyano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.88

1.35

Hércules II

0.88

Alcoyano

1.35

Alcoyano creates 53% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 14 away

1.12

creates per match

1.64

1.06

allows per match

0.64

creates per match

Hércules II

1.12

Alcoyano

1.64

allows per match

Hércules II

1.06

Alcoyano

0.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hércules II+0.00on par

Alcoyano+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hércules II ↓

Alcoyano →

0–011%

0–115%

0–210%

0–34%

0–41%

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Hércules II or draw

52%

Hércules II or Alcoyano

72%

Draw or Alcoyano

76%

Winning margin

Hércules II wins by 2+

Alcoyano wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Hércules II 1+ goals

59%

Hércules II 2+ goals

22%

Hércules II 3+ goals

Alcoyano 1+ goals

74%

Alcoyano 2+ goals

39%

Alcoyano 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Hércules II (draw refunded)

34%

Alcoyano (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Hércules II at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.06 · 78 matches

Alcoyano away — creates 1.64, concedes 0.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Hércules II attack 1.12 + Alcoyano defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.88

Alcoyano attack 1.64 + Hércules II defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Hércules II scores more

24%

level

28%

Alcoyano scores more

48%

Alcoyano at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Alcoyano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff