Alcoyano vs Hércules II: Preview & Prediction

Alcoyano

CANC

00:00

Hércules II

3/15/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 29Campo Municipal El Collao

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Alcoyano66%

×Draw22%

Hércules II12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlcoyanoExpected goals in this matchHércules II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.58

Alcoyano

1.75

Hércules II

0.58

Alcoyano creates 202% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 78 away

2.29

creates per match

0.81

0.36

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Alcoyano

2.29

Hércules II

0.81

allows per match

Alcoyano

0.36

Hércules II

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alcoyano+0.00on par

Hércules II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcoyano ↓

Hércules II →

0–010%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–017%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–015%

2–19%

2–23%

2–30%

2–40%

3–09%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Alcoyano or draw

88%

Alcoyano or Hércules II

78%

Draw or Hércules II

34%

Winning margin

Alcoyano wins by 2+

38%

Hércules II wins by 2+

Team goals

Alcoyano 1+ goals

83%

Alcoyano 2+ goals

52%

Alcoyano 3+ goals

25%

Hércules II 1+ goals

44%

Hércules II 2+ goals

12%

Hércules II 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Alcoyano (draw refunded)

85%

Hércules II (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Alcoyano at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.36 · 14 matches

Hércules II away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.22 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Alcoyano attack 2.29 + Hércules II defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.75

Hércules II attack 0.81 + Alcoyano defence 0.36 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 66%?"

Alcoyano scores more

66%

level

22%

Hércules II scores more

12%

Alcoyano at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Alcoyano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Alcoyano vs Hércules II — Match Preview

Alcoyano face Hércules II on March 15, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Alcoyano host Hércules II at Campo Municipal El Collao.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Alcoyano vs Hércules II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Alcoyano vs Hércules II — Match Preview