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Hercílio Luz vs Camboriú — Serie D 2018

Hercílio Luz
Hercílio Luz
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Camboriú
Camboriú
5/27/2023Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 4Estádio Aníbal Torres Costa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Hercílio Luz42%
×Draw29%
Camboriú30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hercílio Luz
1.22
Camboriú
0.98

Hercílio Luz creates 24% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 9 away

creates per match

Hercílio Luz
1.32
Camboriú
1.22

allows per match

Hercílio Luz
0.74
Camboriú
1.11

finishing

Hercílio Luz+0.00on par
Camboriú+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hercílio Luz ↓

Camboriú →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Hercílio Luz or draw
70%
Hercílio Luz or Camboriú
71%
Draw or Camboriú
58%

Winning margin

Hercílio Luz wins by 2+
18%
Camboriú wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Hercílio Luz 1+ goals
70%
Hercílio Luz 2+ goals
34%
Hercílio Luz 3+ goals
12%
Camboriú 1+ goals
62%
Camboriú 2+ goals
26%
Camboriú 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Hercílio Luz (draw refunded)
58%
Camboriú (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hercílio Luz at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.74 · 19 matches

Camboriú away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hercílio Luz attack 1.32 + Camboriú defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.22

Camboriú attack 1.22 + Hercílio Luz defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hercílio Luz scores more
42%
level
29%
Camboriú scores more
30%

Hercílio Luz at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hercílio Luz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D: Hercílio Luz 2–1 Camboriú

Hercílio Luz beat Camboriú 2-1 in Serie D on May 27, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Aníbal Torres Costa in Tubarão, Santa Catarina.