Camboriú 1–1 Hercílio Luz: Result & Stats | Serie D

Camboriú

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Hercílio Luz

7/1/2023

Serie D · 1st Phase - 11Estádio Eduardo Zeferino Tiago

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Camboriú39%

×Draw33%

Hercílio Luz28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CamboriúExpected goals in this matchHercílio Luz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

0.79

Camboriú

1.00

Hercílio Luz

0.79

Camboriú creates 27% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 19 away

1.11

creates per match

0.79

0.78

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Camboriú

1.11

Hercílio Luz

0.79

allows per match

Camboriú

0.78

Hercílio Luz

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Camboriú+0.00on par

Hercílio Luz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Camboriú ↓

Hercílio Luz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Camboriú or draw

72%

Camboriú or Hercílio Luz

67%

Draw or Hercílio Luz

61%

Winning margin

Camboriú wins by 2+

15%

Hercílio Luz wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Camboriú 1+ goals

63%

Camboriú 2+ goals

26%

Camboriú 3+ goals

8%

Hercílio Luz 1+ goals

55%

Hercílio Luz 2+ goals

19%

Hercílio Luz 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Camboriú (draw refunded)

59%

Hercílio Luz (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Camboriú at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

Hercílio Luz away — creates 0.79, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Camboriú attack 1.11 + Hercílio Luz defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.00

Hercílio Luz attack 0.79 + Camboriú defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Camboriú scores more

39%

level

33%

Hercílio Luz scores more

28%

Camboriú at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Camboriú will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff