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Herbania vs Atlético Paso — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Herbania
Herbania
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Paso
Atlético Paso
5/1/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 34Estadio Municipal de Los Pozos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Herbania35%
×Draw29%
Atlético Paso36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Herbania
1.13
Atlético Paso
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 59 away

creates per match

Herbania
1.27
Atlético Paso
1.12

allows per match

Herbania
1.16
Atlético Paso
0.98

finishing

Herbania+0.00on par
Atlético Paso+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Herbania ↓

Atlético Paso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Herbania or draw
64%
Herbania or Atlético Paso
71%
Draw or Atlético Paso
65%

Winning margin

Herbania wins by 2+
14%
Atlético Paso wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Herbania 1+ goals
68%
Herbania 2+ goals
31%
Herbania 3+ goals
11%
Atlético Paso 1+ goals
68%
Atlético Paso 2+ goals
32%
Atlético Paso 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Herbania (draw refunded)
50%
Atlético Paso (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Herbania at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.16 · 67 matches

Atlético Paso away — creates 1.12, concedes 0.98 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Herbania attack 1.27 + Atlético Paso defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.13

Atlético Paso attack 1.12 + Herbania defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Herbania scores more
35%
level
29%
Atlético Paso scores more
36%

Atlético Paso at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Atlético Paso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Herbania 0–1 Atlético Paso

Atlético Paso beat Herbania 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on May 1, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Los Pozos in Puerto Rosario.