Atlético Paso 4–2 Herbania: Result & Stats

Atlético Paso

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Herbania

1/10/2026

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 17Campo Municipal de El Paso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Atlético Paso63%

×Draw23%

Herbania14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético PasoExpected goals in this matchHerbania

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.68

Atlético Paso

1.73

Herbania

0.68

Atlético Paso creates 154% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 67 away

1.98

creates per match

0.66

0.70

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Atlético Paso

1.98

Herbania

0.66

allows per match

Atlético Paso

0.70

Herbania

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Paso+0.00on par

Herbania+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Paso ↓

Herbania →

0–09%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Atlético Paso or draw

86%

Atlético Paso or Herbania

77%

Draw or Herbania

37%

Winning margin

Atlético Paso wins by 2+

36%

Herbania wins by 2+

Team goals

Atlético Paso 1+ goals

82%

Atlético Paso 2+ goals

52%

Atlético Paso 3+ goals

25%

Herbania 1+ goals

49%

Herbania 2+ goals

15%

Herbania 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Atlético Paso (draw refunded)

81%

Herbania (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Atlético Paso at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.70 · 60 matches

Herbania away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.49 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Paso attack 1.98 + Herbania defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.73

Herbania attack 0.66 + Atlético Paso defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 63%?"

Atlético Paso scores more

63%

level

23%

Herbania scores more

14%

Atlético Paso at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Atlético Paso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Atlético Paso 4–2 Herbania

Atlético Paso beat Herbania 4-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on January 10, 2026.

The match was played at Campo Municipal de El Paso in El Paso.

Atlético Paso vs Herbania — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Atlético Paso 4–2 Herbania