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Heracles vs Ajax — Eredivisie 2018

Heracles
Heracles
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Ajax
Ajax
4/11/2026EredivisieEredivisie · Round 30Asito Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Heracles30%
×Draw22%
Ajax48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heracles
1.48
Ajax
1.94

Ajax creates 31% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 131 away

creates per match

Heracles
1.73
Ajax
2.25

allows per match

Heracles
1.62
Ajax
1.22

finishing

Heracles+0.00on par
Ajax+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heracles ↓

Ajax →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Heracles or draw
52%
Heracles or Ajax
78%
Draw or Ajax
70%

Winning margin

Heracles wins by 2+
13%
Ajax wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Heracles 1+ goals
77%
Heracles 2+ goals
43%
Heracles 3+ goals
19%
Ajax 1+ goals
86%
Ajax 2+ goals
58%
Ajax 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Heracles (draw refunded)
38%
Ajax (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heracles at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.62 · 117 matches

Ajax away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.22 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heracles attack 1.73 + Ajax defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.48

Ajax attack 2.25 + Heracles defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Heracles scores more
30%
level
22%
Ajax scores more
48%

Ajax at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ajax will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eredivisie: Heracles 0–3 Ajax

Ajax beat Heracles 3-0 in Eredivisie on April 11, 2026.

The match was played at Asito Stadium in Almelo.