Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ajax vs Heracles — Eredivisie 2018

Ajax
Ajax
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Heracles
Heracles
2/16/2025EredivisieEredivisie · Round 23Johan Cruijff ArenA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Ajax74%
×Draw16%
Heracles10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ajax
2.50
Heracles
0.80

Ajax creates 213% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 117 away

creates per match

Ajax
2.88
Heracles
0.79

allows per match

Ajax
0.82
Heracles
2.12

finishing

Ajax+0.00on par
Heracles+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ajax ↓

Heracles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Ajax or draw
90%
Ajax or Heracles
84%
Draw or Heracles
26%

Winning margin

Ajax wins by 2+
52%
Heracles wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Ajax 1+ goals
92%
Ajax 2+ goals
71%
Ajax 3+ goals
45%
Heracles 1+ goals
55%
Heracles 2+ goals
19%
Heracles 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ajax (draw refunded)
88%
Heracles (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ajax at home — creates 2.88, concedes 0.82 · 133 matches

Heracles away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.12 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ajax attack 2.88 + Heracles defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.50

Heracles attack 0.79 + Ajax defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Ajax scores more
74%
level
16%
Heracles scores more
10%

Ajax at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Ajax will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ajax vs Heracles

Ajax beat Heracles 4-0 in Eredivisie on February 16, 2025.

The match was played at Johan Cruijff ArenA in Amsterdam.