Hennef 05 1–0 Eilendorf: Result & Stats

Hennef 05

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Eilendorf

2/23/2022

Oberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 19Stadion im Sportzentrum Hennef

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Hennef 0557%

×Draw22%

Eilendorf22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hennef 05Expected goals in this matchEilendorf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.15

Hennef 05

2.00

Eilendorf

1.15

Hennef 05 creates 74% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 20 away

1.79

creates per match

0.90

1.39

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

Hennef 05

1.79

Eilendorf

0.90

allows per match

Hennef 05

1.39

Eilendorf

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hennef 05+0.00on par

Eilendorf+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hennef 05 ↓

Eilendorf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Hennef 05 or draw

78%

Hennef 05 or Eilendorf

78%

Draw or Eilendorf

43%

Winning margin

Hennef 05 wins by 2+

34%

Eilendorf wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Hennef 05 1+ goals

86%

Hennef 05 2+ goals

59%

Hennef 05 3+ goals

32%

Eilendorf 1+ goals

68%

Eilendorf 2+ goals

32%

Eilendorf 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Hennef 05 (draw refunded)

73%

Eilendorf (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hennef 05 at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.39 · 80 matches

Eilendorf away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.20 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hennef 05 attack 1.79 + Eilendorf defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.00

Eilendorf attack 0.90 + Hennef 05 defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Hennef 05 scores more

57%

level

22%

Eilendorf scores more

22%

Hennef 05 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Hennef 05 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff