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Eilendorf vs Hennef 05 — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Eilendorf
Eilendorf
FT
0 – 2
Hennef 05
Hennef 05
10/11/2020Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 6Rasenplatz Halfenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Eilendorf32%
×Draw23%
Hennef 0545%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eilendorf
1.53
Hennef 05
1.84

Hennef 05 creates 20% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 81 away

creates per match

Eilendorf
1.20
Hennef 05
1.98

allows per match

Eilendorf
1.70
Hennef 05
1.86

finishing

Eilendorf+0.00on par
Hennef 05+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eilendorf ↓

Hennef 05 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Eilendorf or draw
55%
Eilendorf or Hennef 05
77%
Draw or Hennef 05
68%

Winning margin

Eilendorf wins by 2+
15%
Hennef 05 wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Eilendorf 1+ goals
78%
Eilendorf 2+ goals
45%
Eilendorf 3+ goals
20%
Hennef 05 1+ goals
84%
Hennef 05 2+ goals
55%
Hennef 05 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Eilendorf (draw refunded)
42%
Hennef 05 (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eilendorf at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.70 · 20 matches

Hennef 05 away — creates 1.98, concedes 1.86 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eilendorf attack 1.20 + Hennef 05 defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.53

Hennef 05 attack 1.98 + Eilendorf defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Eilendorf scores more
32%
level
23%
Hennef 05 scores more
45%

Hennef 05 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Hennef 05 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eilendorf vs Hennef 05

Hennef 05 beat Eilendorf 2-0 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on October 11, 2020.

The match was played at Rasenplatz Halfenstadion in Aachen.