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Hennef 05 vs Deutz — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Hennef 05
Hennef 05
CANC
13:00
Deutz
Deutz
5/24/2021Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 30Stadion im Sportzentrum Hennef

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Hennef 0559%
×Draw20%
Deutz21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hennef 05
2.24
Deutz
1.25

Hennef 05 creates 79% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 19 away

creates per match

Hennef 05
1.79
Deutz
1.11

allows per match

Hennef 05
1.39
Deutz
2.68

finishing

Hennef 05+0.00on par
Deutz+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hennef 05 ↓

Deutz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Hennef 05 or draw
79%
Hennef 05 or Deutz
80%
Draw or Deutz
41%

Winning margin

Hennef 05 wins by 2+
37%
Deutz wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Hennef 05 1+ goals
89%
Hennef 05 2+ goals
65%
Hennef 05 3+ goals
38%
Deutz 1+ goals
71%
Deutz 2+ goals
36%
Deutz 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Hennef 05 (draw refunded)
74%
Deutz (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hennef 05 at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.39 · 80 matches

Deutz away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hennef 05 attack 1.79 + Deutz defence 2.68 → ÷2 → 2.24

Deutz attack 1.11 + Hennef 05 defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Hennef 05 scores more
59%
level
20%
Deutz scores more
21%

Hennef 05 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Hennef 05 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Hennef 05 host Deutz

May 24, 2021: Hennef 05 take on Deutz in Oberliga - Mittelrhein. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Hennef 05 host Deutz at Stadion im Sportzentrum Hennef.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.