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Deutz vs Hennef 05 — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Deutz
Deutz
CANC
14:00
Hennef 05
Hennef 05
12/13/2020Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 13SV Deutz Kunstrasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Deutz24%
×Draw20%
Hennef 0556%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deutz
1.48
Hennef 05
2.33

Hennef 05 creates 57% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 81 away

creates per match

Deutz
1.10
Hennef 05
1.98

allows per match

Deutz
2.67
Hennef 05
1.86

finishing

Deutz+0.00on par
Hennef 05+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deutz ↓

Hennef 05 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Deutz or draw
44%
Deutz or Hennef 05
80%
Draw or Hennef 05
76%

Winning margin

Deutz wins by 2+
11%
Hennef 05 wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Deutz 1+ goals
77%
Deutz 2+ goals
43%
Deutz 3+ goals
19%
Hennef 05 1+ goals
90%
Hennef 05 2+ goals
67%
Hennef 05 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Deutz (draw refunded)
30%
Hennef 05 (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deutz at home — creates 1.10, concedes 2.67 · 21 matches

Hennef 05 away — creates 1.98, concedes 1.86 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deutz attack 1.10 + Hennef 05 defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.48

Hennef 05 attack 1.98 + Deutz defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Deutz scores more
24%
level
20%
Hennef 05 scores more
56%

Hennef 05 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Hennef 05 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Deutz host Hennef 05

December 13, 2020: Deutz take on Hennef 05 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Deutz host Hennef 05 at SV Deutz Kunstrasenplatz.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.