Hennef 05 4–1 Alfter: Result & Stats

Hennef 05

FT

4 – 1

Alfter

10/6/2021

Oberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 9Stadion im Sportzentrum Hennef

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Hennef 0545%

×Draw23%

Alfter32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hennef 05Expected goals in this matchAlfter

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.48

Hennef 05

1.77

Alfter

1.48

Hennef 05 creates 20% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 19 away

1.79

creates per match

1.58

1.39

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Hennef 05

1.79

Alfter

1.58

allows per match

Hennef 05

1.39

Alfter

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hennef 05+0.00on par

Alfter+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hennef 05 ↓

Alfter →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Hennef 05 or draw

68%

Hennef 05 or Alfter

77%

Draw or Alfter

55%

Winning margin

Hennef 05 wins by 2+

24%

Alfter wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Hennef 05 1+ goals

83%

Hennef 05 2+ goals

53%

Hennef 05 3+ goals

26%

Alfter 1+ goals

77%

Alfter 2+ goals

43%

Alfter 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Hennef 05 (draw refunded)

58%

Alfter (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hennef 05 at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.39 · 80 matches

Alfter away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hennef 05 attack 1.79 + Alfter defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.77

Alfter attack 1.58 + Hennef 05 defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Hennef 05 scores more

45%

level

23%

Alfter scores more

32%

Hennef 05 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Hennef 05 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff