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Alfter vs Hennef 05 — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Alfter
Alfter
CANC
13:30
Hennef 05
Hennef 05
12/6/2020Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 12Waldstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Alfter39%
×Draw22%
Hennef 0539%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alfter
1.77
Hennef 05
1.77

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 81 away

creates per match

Alfter
1.68
Hennef 05
1.98

allows per match

Alfter
1.55
Hennef 05
1.86

finishing

Alfter+0.00on par
Hennef 05+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alfter ↓

Hennef 05 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Alfter or draw
61%
Alfter or Hennef 05
78%
Draw or Hennef 05
61%

Winning margin

Alfter wins by 2+
20%
Hennef 05 wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Alfter 1+ goals
83%
Alfter 2+ goals
53%
Alfter 3+ goals
26%
Hennef 05 1+ goals
83%
Hennef 05 2+ goals
53%
Hennef 05 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Alfter (draw refunded)
50%
Hennef 05 (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alfter at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.55 · 22 matches

Hennef 05 away — creates 1.98, concedes 1.86 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alfter attack 1.68 + Hennef 05 defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.77

Hennef 05 attack 1.98 + Alfter defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Alfter scores more
39%
level
22%
Hennef 05 scores more
39%

Alfter at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Alfter will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Alfter face Hennef 05 (Oberliga - Mittelrhein)

Oberliga - Mittelrhein returns with Alfter hosting Hennef 05. Match starts December 6, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Alfter host Hennef 05 at Waldstadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.