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Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W vs Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W
Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W
FT
2 – 2
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W
11/15/2020Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Round 10Stadionul Heniu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W60%
×Draw19%
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W
2.54
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W
1.49

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W creates 70% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 11 away

creates per match

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W
4.00
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W
2.18

allows per match

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W
0.80
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W
1.09

finishing

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W+0.00on par
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W ↓

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W or draw
78%
Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W or Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W
81%
Draw or Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W
40%

Winning margin

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W wins by 2+
39%
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W 1+ goals
92%
Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W 2+ goals
72%
Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W 3+ goals
46%
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W 1+ goals
77%
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W 2+ goals
44%
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W (draw refunded)
73%
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W at home — creates 4.00, concedes 0.80 · 20 matches

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W attack 4.00 + Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 2.54

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W attack 2.18 + Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W scores more
60%
level
19%
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W scores more
22%

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 1 Feminin: Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W 2–2 Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W and Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W drew 2-2 in Liga 1 Feminin on November 15, 2020.

The match was played at Stadionul Heniu in Prundu Bârgăului.