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Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W vs Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W
FT
3 – 7
Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W
Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W
5/30/2021Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Championship Round - 10Stadionul Comunal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W42%
×Draw19%
Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W
2.56
Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W
2.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 22 away

creates per match

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W
3.70
Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W
2.82

allows per match

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W
2.10
Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W
1.41

finishing

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W+0.00on par
Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

84%Yes
  • Yes84
  • No16

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W ↓

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–25%
1–34%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
73%27%4.5
55%45%

Double chance

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W or draw
61%
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W or Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W
81%
Draw or Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W
58%

Winning margin

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W wins by 2+
25%
Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W 1+ goals
92%
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W 2+ goals
72%
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W 3+ goals
46%
Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W 1+ goals
91%
Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W 2+ goals
70%
Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W (draw refunded)
52%
Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
80%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W at home — creates 3.70, concedes 2.10 · 10 matches

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W away — creates 2.82, concedes 1.41 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W attack 3.70 + Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 2.56

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W attack 2.82 + Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W scores more
42%
level
19%
Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W scores more
39%

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W vs Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W beat Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W 7-3 in Liga 1 Feminin on May 30, 2021.

The match was played at Stadionul Comunal in Becicherecu Mic.