Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W 4–1 Fairplay Bucureşti W

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W

FT

4 – 1

Fairplay Bucureşti W

3/12/2022

Liga 1 Feminin · Championship Round - 2Stadionul Heniu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W83%

×Draw10%

Fairplay Bucureşti W7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului WExpected goals in this matchFairplay Bucureşti W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.94

1.15

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W

3.94

Fairplay Bucureşti W

1.15

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W creates 243% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 32 away

4.00

creates per match

1.50

0.80

allows per match

3.88

creates per match

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W

4.00

Fairplay Bucureşti W

1.50

allows per match

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W

0.80

Fairplay Bucureşti W

3.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W+0.00on par

Fairplay Bucureşti W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over87
Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W ↓

Fairplay Bucureşti W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–13%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–07%

4–18%

4–25%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 71% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

87%13%3.5

72%28%4.5

53%47%

Double chance

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W or draw

93%

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W or Fairplay Bucureşti W

90%

Draw or Fairplay Bucureşti W

17%

Winning margin

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W wins by 2+

68%

Fairplay Bucureşti W wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W 1+ goals

98%

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W 2+ goals

89%

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W 3+ goals

72%

Fairplay Bucureşti W 1+ goals

68%

Fairplay Bucureşti W 2+ goals

32%

Fairplay Bucureşti W 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W (draw refunded)

92%

Fairplay Bucureşti W (draw refunded)

8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W at home — creates 4.00, concedes 0.80 · 20 matches

Fairplay Bucureşti W away — creates 1.50, concedes 3.88 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W attack 4.00 + Fairplay Bucureşti W defence 3.88 → ÷2 → 3.94

Fairplay Bucureşti W attack 1.50 + Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W scores more

83%

level

10%

Fairplay Bucureşti W scores more

7%

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff