Fairplay Bucureşti W 1–2 Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W

Fairplay Bucureşti W

FT

1 – 2

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W

11/7/2021

Liga 1 Feminin · Round 8Baza Sportivă Ciorogârla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Fairplay Bucureşti W19%

×Draw16%

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W65%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fairplay Bucureşti WExpected goals in this matchHeniu Prundu Bârgăului W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

3.33

Fairplay Bucureşti W

1.82

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W

3.33

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W creates 83% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 22 away

2.23

creates per match

2.82

3.84

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Fairplay Bucureşti W

2.23

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W

2.82

allows per match

Fairplay Bucureşti W

3.84

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fairplay Bucureşti W+0.00on par

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over88
Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes81
No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fairplay Bucureşti W ↓

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–23%

0–34%

0–43%

1

1–01%

1–14%

1–26%

1–37%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–26%

2–36%

2–45%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–34%

3–43%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (7%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

88%12%3.5

74%26%4.5

56%44%

Double chance

Fairplay Bucureşti W or draw

35%

Fairplay Bucureşti W or Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W

84%

Draw or Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W

81%

Winning margin

Fairplay Bucureşti W wins by 2+

9%

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W wins by 2+

47%

Team goals

Fairplay Bucureşti W 1+ goals

84%

Fairplay Bucureşti W 2+ goals

54%

Fairplay Bucureşti W 3+ goals

27%

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W 1+ goals

96%

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W 2+ goals

84%

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W 3+ goals

63%

Draw no bet

Fairplay Bucureşti W (draw refunded)

23%

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

77%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fairplay Bucureşti W at home — creates 2.23, concedes 3.84 · 31 matches

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W away — creates 2.82, concedes 1.41 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fairplay Bucureşti W attack 2.23 + Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.82

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W attack 2.82 + Fairplay Bucureşti W defence 3.84 → ÷2 → 3.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Fairplay Bucureşti W scores more

19%

level

16%

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W scores more

65%

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff