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Mamahira vs Bakaridjan — Première Division 2019

Mamahira
Mamahira
FT
0 – 1
Bakaridjan
Bakaridjan
4/17/2016Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 5Stade Mamadou Konaté (Bamako)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Mamahira24%
×Draw37%
Bakaridjan39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mamahira
0.61
Bakaridjan
0.86

Bakaridjan creates 41% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 97 away

creates per match

Mamahira
0.38
Bakaridjan
1.03

allows per match

Mamahira
0.69
Bakaridjan
0.85

finishing

Mamahira+0.00on par
Bakaridjan+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Under
  • Under82
  • Over18

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

74%No
  • No74
  • Yes26

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mamahira ↓

Bakaridjan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–023%
0–120%
0–29%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–04%
2–14%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (23%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
77%23%1.5
43%57%2.5
18%82%3.5
6%94%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Mamahira or draw
61%
Mamahira or Bakaridjan
63%
Draw or Bakaridjan
76%

Winning margin

Mamahira wins by 2+
6%
Bakaridjan wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Mamahira 1+ goals
46%
Mamahira 2+ goals
13%
Mamahira 3+ goals
2%
Bakaridjan 1+ goals
58%
Bakaridjan 2+ goals
21%
Bakaridjan 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Mamahira (draw refunded)
38%
Bakaridjan (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
14%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mamahira at home — creates 0.38, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

Bakaridjan away — creates 1.03, concedes 0.85 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mamahira attack 0.38 + Bakaridjan defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.61

Bakaridjan attack 1.03 + Mamahira defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Mamahira scores more
24%
level
37%
Bakaridjan scores more
39%

Bakaridjan at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bakaridjan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mamahira vs Bakaridjan

Bakaridjan beat Mamahira 1-0 in Première Division on April 17, 2016.

The match was played at Stade Mamadou Konaté (Bamako).