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Bakaridjan vs Mamahira — Première Division 2019

Bakaridjan
Bakaridjan
FT
1 – 0
Mamahira
Mamahira
8/5/2016Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 14Stade Omnisports Modibo Keïta (Bamako)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Bakaridjan55%
×Draw27%
Mamahira18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bakaridjan
1.41
Mamahira
0.67

Bakaridjan creates 110% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 13 away

creates per match

Bakaridjan
0.96
Mamahira
0.54

allows per match

Bakaridjan
0.80
Mamahira
1.85

finishing

Bakaridjan+0.00on par
Mamahira+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bakaridjan ↓

Mamahira →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Bakaridjan or draw
82%
Bakaridjan or Mamahira
73%
Draw or Mamahira
45%

Winning margin

Bakaridjan wins by 2+
27%
Mamahira wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Bakaridjan 1+ goals
76%
Bakaridjan 2+ goals
41%
Bakaridjan 3+ goals
17%
Mamahira 1+ goals
49%
Mamahira 2+ goals
15%
Mamahira 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Bakaridjan (draw refunded)
76%
Mamahira (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bakaridjan at home — creates 0.96, concedes 0.80 · 97 matches

Mamahira away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bakaridjan attack 0.96 + Mamahira defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.41

Mamahira attack 0.54 + Bakaridjan defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Bakaridjan scores more
55%
level
27%
Mamahira scores more
18%

Bakaridjan at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Bakaridjan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bakaridjan vs Mamahira

Bakaridjan beat Mamahira 1-0 in Première Division on August 5, 2016.

The match was played at Stade Omnisports Modibo Keïta (Bamako).