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Henan Jianye vs Hangzhou Greentown — FA Cup 2019

Henan Jianye
Henan Jianye
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Hangzhou Greentown
Hangzhou Greentown
Felippe Cardoso 85'
Wang Shangyuan 63'
Zhong Yihao 60'
Liu Haofan 69'
F. Andrijašević 11'
6/22/2025FA CupFA Cup · 4th RoundZhengzhou Hanghai Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Henan Jianye37%
×Draw23%
Hangzhou Greentown40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Henan Jianye
1.61
Hangzhou Greentown
1.70

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

creates per match

Henan Jianye
1.50
Hangzhou Greentown
1.73

allows per match

Henan Jianye
1.67
Hangzhou Greentown
1.73

finishing

Henan Jianye+0.00on par
Hangzhou Greentown+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Henan Jianye ↓

Hangzhou Greentown →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Henan Jianye or draw
60%
Henan Jianye or Hangzhou Greentown
77%
Draw or Hangzhou Greentown
63%

Winning margin

Henan Jianye wins by 2+
18%
Hangzhou Greentown wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Henan Jianye 1+ goals
80%
Henan Jianye 2+ goals
48%
Henan Jianye 3+ goals
22%
Hangzhou Greentown 1+ goals
82%
Hangzhou Greentown 2+ goals
51%
Hangzhou Greentown 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Henan Jianye (draw refunded)
48%
Hangzhou Greentown (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Henan Jianye at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Hangzhou Greentown away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Henan Jianye attack 1.50 + Hangzhou Greentown defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.61

Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.73 + Henan Jianye defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Henan Jianye scores more
37%
level
23%
Hangzhou Greentown scores more
40%

Hangzhou Greentown at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hangzhou Greentown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
F. Andrijašević
35'
Yao Junsheng
60'
Zhong Yihao
63'
Wang Shangyuan
69'
Liu Haofan
75'
Sun Guowen
85'
Felippe Cardoso
Henan
Hangzhou
Daniel António Lopes Ramos
Manager: Daniel António Lopes Ramos
Raúl Caneda Perez
Manager: Raúl Caneda Perez

Match Recap: Henan Jianye vs Hangzhou Greentown

Henan Jianye beat Hangzhou Greentown 3-2 in FA Cup on June 22, 2025.

Goals: F. Andrijašević (11'), Zhong Yihao (60'), Wang Shangyuan (63'), Liu Haofan (69'), Felippe Cardoso (85').

The match was played at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium in Zhengzhou.