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Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye — Super League 2018

Hangzhou Greentown
Hangzhou Greentown
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Henan Jianye
Henan Jianye
5/16/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 13Huizhou Olympic Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Hangzhou Greentown50%
×Draw22%
Henan Jianye28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hangzhou Greentown
1.97
Henan Jianye
1.42

Hangzhou Greentown creates 39% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

creates per match

Hangzhou Greentown
2.35
Henan Jianye
1.47

allows per match

Hangzhou Greentown
1.36
Henan Jianye
1.59

finishing

Hangzhou Greentown-0.35scores less
Henan Jianye-0.56scores less

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hangzhou Greentown ↓

Henan Jianye →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Hangzhou Greentown or draw
72%
Hangzhou Greentown or Henan Jianye
78%
Draw or Henan Jianye
50%

Winning margin

Hangzhou Greentown wins by 2+
29%
Henan Jianye wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Hangzhou Greentown 1+ goals
86%
Hangzhou Greentown 2+ goals
58%
Hangzhou Greentown 3+ goals
31%
Henan Jianye 1+ goals
76%
Henan Jianye 2+ goals
41%
Henan Jianye 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Hangzhou Greentown (draw refunded)
64%
Henan Jianye (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hangzhou Greentown at home — creates 2.35, concedes 1.36 · 6 matches

Henan Jianye away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.59 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hangzhou Greentown attack 2.35 + Henan Jianye defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.97

Henan Jianye attack 1.47 + Hangzhou Greentown defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Hangzhou Greentown scores more
50%
level
22%
Henan Jianye scores more
28%

Hangzhou Greentown at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Hangzhou Greentown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye

Hangzhou Greentown and Henan Jianye drew 2-2 in Super League on May 16, 2025.

The match was played at Huizhou Olympic Stadium in Huizhou.