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Henan Jianye vs Guizhou Zhicheng — Super League 2018

Henan Jianye
Henan Jianye
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Guizhou Zhicheng
Guizhou Zhicheng
11/7/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Round 29Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Henan Jianye60%
×Draw21%
Guizhou Zhicheng19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Henan Jianye
2.10
Guizhou Zhicheng
1.11

Henan Jianye creates 89% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 15 away

creates per match

Henan Jianye
1.48
Guizhou Zhicheng
1.00

allows per match

Henan Jianye
1.22
Guizhou Zhicheng
2.73

finishing

Henan Jianye+0.00on par
Guizhou Zhicheng+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Henan Jianye ↓

Guizhou Zhicheng →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Henan Jianye or draw
81%
Henan Jianye or Guizhou Zhicheng
79%
Draw or Guizhou Zhicheng
40%

Winning margin

Henan Jianye wins by 2+
37%
Guizhou Zhicheng wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Henan Jianye 1+ goals
88%
Henan Jianye 2+ goals
62%
Henan Jianye 3+ goals
35%
Guizhou Zhicheng 1+ goals
67%
Guizhou Zhicheng 2+ goals
30%
Guizhou Zhicheng 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Henan Jianye (draw refunded)
75%
Guizhou Zhicheng (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Henan Jianye at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.22 · 120 matches

Guizhou Zhicheng away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Henan Jianye attack 1.48 + Guizhou Zhicheng defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 2.10

Guizhou Zhicheng attack 1.00 + Henan Jianye defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Henan Jianye scores more
60%
level
21%
Guizhou Zhicheng scores more
19%

Henan Jianye at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Henan Jianye will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Henan Jianye vs Guizhou Zhicheng

Henan Jianye beat Guizhou Zhicheng 4-0 in Super League on November 7, 2018.

The match was played at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium in Zhengzhou.