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Guizhou Zhicheng vs Henan Jianye — Super League 2018

Guizhou Zhicheng
Guizhou Zhicheng
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Henan Jianye
Henan Jianye
7/28/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Round 14Guiyang Olympic Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Guizhou Zhicheng37%
×Draw25%
Henan Jianye37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guizhou Zhicheng
1.39
Henan Jianye
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 121 away

creates per match

Guizhou Zhicheng
1.27
Henan Jianye
1.09

allows per match

Guizhou Zhicheng
1.67
Henan Jianye
1.51

finishing

Guizhou Zhicheng+0.00on par
Henan Jianye+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guizhou Zhicheng ↓

Henan Jianye →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Guizhou Zhicheng or draw
63%
Guizhou Zhicheng or Henan Jianye
75%
Draw or Henan Jianye
63%

Winning margin

Guizhou Zhicheng wins by 2+
17%
Henan Jianye wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Guizhou Zhicheng 1+ goals
75%
Guizhou Zhicheng 2+ goals
40%
Guizhou Zhicheng 3+ goals
16%
Henan Jianye 1+ goals
75%
Henan Jianye 2+ goals
40%
Henan Jianye 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Guizhou Zhicheng (draw refunded)
50%
Henan Jianye (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guizhou Zhicheng at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

Henan Jianye away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.51 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guizhou Zhicheng attack 1.27 + Henan Jianye defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.39

Henan Jianye attack 1.09 + Guizhou Zhicheng defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Guizhou Zhicheng scores more
37%
level
25%
Henan Jianye scores more
37%

Guizhou Zhicheng at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Guizhou Zhicheng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guizhou Zhicheng vs Henan Jianye

Henan Jianye beat Guizhou Zhicheng 2-1 in Super League on July 28, 2018.

The match was played at Guiyang Olympic Sports Center in Guiyang.