Henan Jianye 2–0 Chengdu Better City

Henan Jianye

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Chengdu Better City

9/21/2024

Super League · Round 26Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Henan Jianye47%

×Draw24%

Chengdu Better City30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Henan JianyeExpected goals in this matchChengdu Better City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.33

Henan Jianye

1.73

Chengdu Better City

1.33

Henan Jianye creates 30% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

2.11

creates per match

1.60

1.06

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Henan Jianye

2.11

Chengdu Better City

1.60

allows per match

Henan Jianye

1.06

Chengdu Better City

1.36

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

+0.90scores more than expected

finishing

Henan Jianye+0.11scores more

Chengdu Better City+0.90scores more

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Henan Jianye ↓

Chengdu Better City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Henan Jianye or draw

70%

Henan Jianye or Chengdu Better City

76%

Draw or Chengdu Better City

53%

Winning margin

Henan Jianye wins by 2+

25%

Chengdu Better City wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Henan Jianye 1+ goals

82%

Henan Jianye 2+ goals

52%

Henan Jianye 3+ goals

25%

Chengdu Better City 1+ goals

74%

Chengdu Better City 2+ goals

38%

Chengdu Better City 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Henan Jianye (draw refunded)

61%

Chengdu Better City (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Henan Jianye at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.06 · 9 matches

Chengdu Better City away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.36 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Henan Jianye attack 2.11 + Chengdu Better City defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.73

Chengdu Better City attack 1.60 + Henan Jianye defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Henan Jianye scores more

47%

level

24%

Chengdu Better City scores more

30%

Henan Jianye at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Henan Jianye will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff