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Chengdu Better City vs Henan Jianye — Super League 2018

Chengdu Better City
Chengdu Better City
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Henan Jianye
Henan Jianye
Abduweli Behram 90'
Wei Shihao 74'
E. Sorokin 18'
5/9/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 11Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Chengdu Better City54%
×Draw22%
Henan Jianye24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chengdu Better City
1.96
Henan Jianye
1.25

Chengdu Better City creates 57% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

creates per match

Chengdu Better City
2.32
Henan Jianye
1.47

allows per match

Chengdu Better City
1.03
Henan Jianye
1.59

finishing

Chengdu Better City-0.88scores less
Henan Jianye-0.56scores less

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chengdu Better City ↓

Henan Jianye →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Chengdu Better City or draw
76%
Chengdu Better City or Henan Jianye
78%
Draw or Henan Jianye
46%

Winning margin

Chengdu Better City wins by 2+
31%
Henan Jianye wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Chengdu Better City 1+ goals
86%
Chengdu Better City 2+ goals
58%
Chengdu Better City 3+ goals
31%
Henan Jianye 1+ goals
71%
Henan Jianye 2+ goals
36%
Henan Jianye 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Chengdu Better City (draw refunded)
69%
Henan Jianye (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chengdu Better City at home — creates 2.32, concedes 1.03 · 9 matches

Henan Jianye away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.59 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chengdu Better City attack 2.32 + Henan Jianye defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.96

Henan Jianye attack 1.47 + Chengdu Better City defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Chengdu Better City scores more
54%
level
22%
Henan Jianye scores more
24%

Chengdu Better City at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Chengdu Better City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32
Liu DianzuoChengdu Better CityChengdu Better City · G
8.9

Match Events

18'
E. Sorokin↳ Liao Lisheng
34'
Yang Ming-Yang
45+4'
Han Pengfei
45'
Yihao Zhong
51'
Abraham HalikPenalty confirmed
53'
GustavoMissed penalty
60'
Abduweli Behram← Felipe Silva
61'
N. Muhmet← A. Abudulam
71'
He Chao← Haliq Ablahan
71'
Xu Haofeng← Liu Yixin
74'
Wei Shihao
83'
Gan Chao← Yang Ming-Yang
84'
Wang Ziming← Romulo
84'
Y. Li← Han Pengfei
85'
Yin Congyao← Zhong Yihao
85'
Zheng Dalun← Huang Ruifeng
89'
M. Iminqari← Wei Shihao
90'
Abduweli Behram

Possession

51%Chengdu

Shots

13Chengdu

Pass accuracy

49%Chengdu

Statistics

ChengduHenan
Overview
51%Possession49%
13Total Shots8
2.12Expected Goals (xG)1.53
9Corners4
16Fouls11
Shots
13Total Shots8
7On Target5
2Off Target3
4Blocked1
10Inside Box7
3Outside Box1
Passing
51%Possession49%
397Total Passes380
320Accurate Passes321
81%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
5Saves3
Discipline
16Fouls11
2Yellow Cards1
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Chengdu Better City vs Henan Jianye

Chengdu Better City beat Henan Jianye 3-0 in Super League on May 9, 2026.

Goals: E. Sorokin (18'), Wei Shihao (74'), Abduweli Behram (90').

Chengdu Better City controlled possession (51%) and registered 13 shots to 8.

The match was played at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park in Chengdu.