Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Henan Jianye vs Beijing Renhe — Super League 2018

Henan Jianye
Henan Jianye
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Beijing Renhe
Beijing Renhe
8/9/2019Super LeagueSuper League · Round 23Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Henan Jianye54%
×Draw24%
Beijing Renhe22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Henan Jianye
1.73
Beijing Renhe
1.01

Henan Jianye creates 71% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 30 away

creates per match

Henan Jianye
1.48
Beijing Renhe
0.80

allows per match

Henan Jianye
1.22
Beijing Renhe
1.97

finishing

Henan Jianye+0.00on par
Beijing Renhe+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Henan Jianye ↓

Beijing Renhe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Henan Jianye or draw
78%
Henan Jianye or Beijing Renhe
76%
Draw or Beijing Renhe
46%

Winning margin

Henan Jianye wins by 2+
30%
Beijing Renhe wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Henan Jianye 1+ goals
82%
Henan Jianye 2+ goals
52%
Henan Jianye 3+ goals
25%
Beijing Renhe 1+ goals
64%
Beijing Renhe 2+ goals
27%
Beijing Renhe 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Henan Jianye (draw refunded)
71%
Beijing Renhe (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Henan Jianye at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.22 · 120 matches

Beijing Renhe away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.97 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Henan Jianye attack 1.48 + Beijing Renhe defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.73

Beijing Renhe attack 0.80 + Henan Jianye defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Henan Jianye scores more
54%
level
24%
Beijing Renhe scores more
22%

Henan Jianye at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Henan Jianye will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Henan Jianye 2–1 Beijing Renhe

Henan Jianye beat Beijing Renhe 2-1 in Super League on August 9, 2019.

The match was played at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium in Zhengzhou.