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Beijing Renhe vs Henan Jianye — Super League 2018

Beijing Renhe
Beijing Renhe
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Henan Jianye
Henan Jianye
10/5/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Round 25Fengtai Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Beijing Renhe36%
×Draw26%
Henan Jianye39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beijing Renhe
1.34
Henan Jianye
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 121 away

creates per match

Beijing Renhe
1.17
Henan Jianye
1.09

allows per match

Beijing Renhe
1.73
Henan Jianye
1.51

finishing

Beijing Renhe+0.00on par
Henan Jianye+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beijing Renhe ↓

Henan Jianye →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Beijing Renhe or draw
61%
Beijing Renhe or Henan Jianye
74%
Draw or Henan Jianye
64%

Winning margin

Beijing Renhe wins by 2+
16%
Henan Jianye wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Beijing Renhe 1+ goals
74%
Beijing Renhe 2+ goals
39%
Beijing Renhe 3+ goals
15%
Henan Jianye 1+ goals
76%
Henan Jianye 2+ goals
41%
Henan Jianye 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Beijing Renhe (draw refunded)
48%
Henan Jianye (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beijing Renhe at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.73 · 30 matches

Henan Jianye away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.51 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beijing Renhe attack 1.17 + Henan Jianye defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.34

Henan Jianye attack 1.09 + Beijing Renhe defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Beijing Renhe scores more
36%
level
26%
Henan Jianye scores more
39%

Henan Jianye at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Henan Jianye will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Beijing Renhe vs Henan Jianye

Beijing Renhe beat Henan Jianye 1-0 in Super League on October 5, 2018.

The match was played at Fengtai Sports Center in Beijing.