Helsingborg 0–0 Ostersunds FK: Result & Stats

Helsingborg

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ostersunds FK

6/1/2025

Superettan · Round 11Olympia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Helsingborg50%

×Draw23%

Ostersunds FK26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HelsingborgExpected goals in this matchOstersunds FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.23

Helsingborg

1.78

Ostersunds FK

1.23

Helsingborg creates 45% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 14 away

1.46

creates per match

1.20

1.26

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Helsingborg

1.46

Ostersunds FK

1.20

allows per match

Helsingborg

1.26

Ostersunds FK

2.11

-0.71scores less than expected

finishing

-0.77scores less than expected

finishing

Helsingborg-0.71scores less

Ostersunds FK-0.77scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Helsingborg ↓

Ostersunds FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Helsingborg or draw

74%

Helsingborg or Ostersunds FK

77%

Draw or Ostersunds FK

50%

Winning margin

Helsingborg wins by 2+

28%

Ostersunds FK wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Helsingborg 1+ goals

83%

Helsingborg 2+ goals

53%

Helsingborg 3+ goals

26%

Ostersunds FK 1+ goals

71%

Ostersunds FK 2+ goals

35%

Ostersunds FK 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Helsingborg (draw refunded)

65%

Ostersunds FK (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Helsingborg at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.26 · 8 matches

Ostersunds FK away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.11 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Helsingborg attack 1.46 + Ostersunds FK defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.78

Ostersunds FK attack 1.20 + Helsingborg defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Helsingborg scores more

50%

level

23%

Ostersunds FK scores more

26%

Helsingborg at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Helsingborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

A. Benediktsson

Ostersunds FK · G

8.5

Match Events

19'

28'

40'

59'

59'

M. Rasmussen← A. Akimey

68'

Z. Ghanoum← T. Johansson

70'

O. Aga← M. Svensson

82'

M. Oluwayemi← A. Bonnah

82'

Y. Adjoumani← N. Perry

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HelsingborgOstersunds

Overview

41%Possession59%

11Total Shots12

1.09Expected Goals (xG)1.17

11Corners2

7Fouls14

Shots

11Total Shots12

4On Target5

6Off Target3

1Blocked4

8Inside Box5

3Outside Box7

Passing

41%Possession59%

376Total Passes477

292Accurate Passes393

78%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

5Saves5

Discipline

7Fouls14

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

1Offsides0