Helsingborg 0–0 Ostersunds FK: Result & Stats

Helsingborg

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ostersunds FK

4/28/2024

Superettan · Round 5Olympia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Helsingborg52%

×Draw23%

Ostersunds FK25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HelsingborgExpected goals in this matchOstersunds FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.23

Helsingborg

1.85

Ostersunds FK

1.23

Helsingborg creates 50% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 13 away

1.51

creates per match

1.20

1.27

allows per match

2.19

creates per match

Helsingborg

1.51

Ostersunds FK

1.20

allows per match

Helsingborg

1.27

Ostersunds FK

2.19

-0.65scores less than expected

finishing

-0.74scores less than expected

finishing

Helsingborg-0.65scores less

Ostersunds FK-0.74scores less

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Helsingborg ↓

Ostersunds FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Helsingborg or draw

75%

Helsingborg or Ostersunds FK

77%

Draw or Ostersunds FK

48%

Winning margin

Helsingborg wins by 2+

29%

Ostersunds FK wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Helsingborg 1+ goals

84%

Helsingborg 2+ goals

55%

Helsingborg 3+ goals

28%

Ostersunds FK 1+ goals

71%

Ostersunds FK 2+ goals

35%

Ostersunds FK 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Helsingborg (draw refunded)

67%

Ostersunds FK (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Helsingborg at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.27 · 7 matches

Ostersunds FK away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.19 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Helsingborg attack 1.51 + Ostersunds FK defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.85

Ostersunds FK attack 1.20 + Helsingborg defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Helsingborg scores more

52%

level

23%

Ostersunds FK scores more

25%

Helsingborg at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Helsingborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

A. Keita

Ostersunds FK · G

8.0

Match Events

25'

Arquímides Ordóñez

46'

S. Almadjed← A. Hellborg

58'

Daniel Bergman

63'

M. Musolitin← A. Bonnah

63'

A. Winbo← M. Oluwayemi

65'

Milan Justin Silva Rasmussen

70'

P. Bonde← K. Jablinski

73'

D. Olsson← M. Rasmussen

73'

Amar Muhsin← T. Silverholt

76'

Philip Bonde

78'

Jakob Hedenquist

79'

S. Karlsson Grach← S. Marklund

79'

H. Norrby← Erick Brendon

84'

S. Bengtsson← D. Bergman

87'

A. Svanbäck← B. Acquah

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HelsingborgOstersunds

Overview

49%Possession51%

11Total Shots9

1.65Expected Goals (xG)0.45

5Corners7

15Fouls19

Shots

11Total Shots9

4On Target3

5Off Target4

2Blocked2

6Inside Box2

5Outside Box7

Passing

49%Possession51%

399Total Passes368

326Accurate Passes298

82%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

15Fouls19

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

1Offsides0