Helsingborg 0–1 Halmstad: Result & Stats

Helsingborg

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Halmstad

S. Karim 7'

12/11/2021

Allsvenskan · Relegation RoundOlympia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Helsingborg43%

×Draw28%

Halmstad30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HelsingborgExpected goals in this matchHalmstad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.05

Helsingborg

1.32

Halmstad

1.05

Helsingborg creates 26% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 67 away

0.87

creates per match

0.84

1.26

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Helsingborg

0.87

Halmstad

0.84

allows per match

Helsingborg

1.26

Halmstad

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Helsingborg+0.00on par

Halmstad+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Helsingborg ↓

Halmstad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Helsingborg or draw

70%

Helsingborg or Halmstad

72%

Draw or Halmstad

57%

Winning margin

Helsingborg wins by 2+

20%

Halmstad wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Helsingborg 1+ goals

73%

Helsingborg 2+ goals

38%

Helsingborg 3+ goals

15%

Halmstad 1+ goals

65%

Halmstad 2+ goals

28%

Halmstad 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Helsingborg (draw refunded)

59%

Halmstad (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Helsingborg at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.26 · 46 matches

Halmstad away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.78 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Helsingborg attack 0.87 + Halmstad defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.32

Halmstad attack 0.84 + Helsingborg defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Helsingborg scores more

43%

level

28%

Halmstad scores more

30%

Helsingborg at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Helsingborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

E. Kurtulus

Halmstad · D

7.6

Match Events

7'

Sadat Karim

7'

S. Karim↳ J. Allansson

18'

Brandur Hendriksson Olsen

69'

R. Jönsson← V. Kreida

69'

V. Lundberg← A. Al Hamlawi

72'

Alexander Johansson← S. Karim

72'

E. Wikström← S. Kroon

81'

B. Acquah← A. Kaied

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HelsingborgHalmstad

Overview

47%Possession53%

8Total Shots7

4Corners2

11Fouls6

Shots

8Total Shots7

1On Target1

4Off Target3

3Blocked3

3Inside Box3

5Outside Box4

Passing

47%Possession53%

436Total Passes493

336Accurate Passes383

77%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls6

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1