Halmstad 3–2 Helsingborg: Result & Stats

Halmstad

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Helsingborg

Amir Al Ammari 90'

N. Mohammed 61', 23'

Amar Muhsin 77'

T. Silverholt 30'

2/18/2024

Svenska Cupen · Group Stage - 1Bravida Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Halmstad39%

×Draw24%

Helsingborg36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HalmstadExpected goals in this matchHelsingborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.46

Halmstad

1.52

Helsingborg

1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 17 away

1.45

creates per match

1.82

1.09

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Halmstad

1.45

Helsingborg

1.82

allows per match

Halmstad

1.09

Helsingborg

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Halmstad+0.00on par

Helsingborg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Halmstad ↓

Helsingborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Halmstad or draw

64%

Halmstad or Helsingborg

76%

Draw or Helsingborg

61%

Winning margin

Halmstad wins by 2+

19%

Helsingborg wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Halmstad 1+ goals

78%

Halmstad 2+ goals

45%

Halmstad 3+ goals

20%

Helsingborg 1+ goals

77%

Helsingborg 2+ goals

43%

Helsingborg 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Halmstad (draw refunded)

52%

Helsingborg (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Halmstad at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Helsingborg away — creates 1.82, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Halmstad attack 1.45 + Helsingborg defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.52

Helsingborg attack 1.82 + Halmstad defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Halmstad scores more

39%

level

24%

Helsingborg scores more

36%

Halmstad at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Halmstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

N. Mohammed

30'

T. Silverholt

50'

G. Wallentin← J. Baffoe

60'

61'

65'

65'

68'

G. Eyjólfsson← A. Ahlstrand

68'

J. Allansson← J. Svedberg

68'

Amar Muhsin← T. Silverholt

70'

J. Allansson

77'

Amar Muhsin

81'

A. Hellborg← D. Olsson

81'

A. Nilsson← M. Rasmussen

81'

S. Bengtsson← L. Kjellnäs

86'

R. Wiedesheim-Paul← Viktor Granath

89'

89'

90'

90+2'

90'

Halmstad

Helsingborg

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

Manager: M. Haglund

50'▲G. Wallentin←▼J. Baffoe

68'▲G. Eyjólfsson←▼A. Ahlstrand

68'▲J. Allansson←▼J. Svedberg

86'▲R. Wiedesheim-Paul←▼Viktor Granath

Halmstad substitutes

WallentinEyjólfssonAllanssonWiedesheim-PaulHallOlssonCarlssonErlandssonGranath

Manager: K. Saarenpää

68'▲Amar Muhsin←▼T. Silverholt

81'▲A. Hellborg←▼D. Olsson

81'▲A. Nilsson←▼M. Rasmussen

81'▲S. Bengtsson←▼L. Kjellnäs

Helsingborg substitutes

MuhsinHellborgNilssonBengtssonSvanbäckBergmanArvidssonRogneWesterlund

Match Recap: Halmstad vs Helsingborg

Halmstad beat Helsingborg 3-2 in Svenska Cupen on February 18, 2024.

Goals: N. Mohammed (23', 61'), T. Silverholt (30'), Amar Muhsin (77'), Amir Al Ammari (90').

The match was played at Bravida Arena in Göteborg.

Halmstad vs Helsingborg — Svenska Cupen 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Halmstad vs Helsingborg