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Helsingborg vs Falkenbergs FF — Superettan 2018

Helsingborg
Helsingborg
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Falkenbergs FF
Falkenbergs FF
7/27/2021SuperettanSuperettan · Round 13Olympia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Helsingborg43%
×Draw25%
Falkenbergs FF32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Helsingborg
1.56
Falkenbergs FF
1.31

Helsingborg creates 19% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 54 away

creates per match

Helsingborg
1.54
Falkenbergs FF
1.61

allows per match

Helsingborg
1.02
Falkenbergs FF
1.57

finishing

Helsingborg+0.00on par
Falkenbergs FF+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Helsingborg ↓

Falkenbergs FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Helsingborg or draw
68%
Helsingborg or Falkenbergs FF
75%
Draw or Falkenbergs FF
57%

Winning margin

Helsingborg wins by 2+
22%
Falkenbergs FF wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Helsingborg 1+ goals
79%
Helsingborg 2+ goals
46%
Helsingborg 3+ goals
21%
Falkenbergs FF 1+ goals
73%
Falkenbergs FF 2+ goals
38%
Falkenbergs FF 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Helsingborg (draw refunded)
57%
Falkenbergs FF (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Helsingborg at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.02 · 83 matches

Falkenbergs FF away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.57 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Helsingborg attack 1.54 + Falkenbergs FF defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.56

Falkenbergs FF attack 1.61 + Helsingborg defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Helsingborg scores more
43%
level
25%
Falkenbergs FF scores more
32%

Helsingborg at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Helsingborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superettan: Helsingborg 4–0 Falkenbergs FF

Helsingborg beat Falkenbergs FF 4-0 in Superettan on July 27, 2021.

The match was played at Olympia in Helsingborg.