Falkenbergs FF 1–4 Helsingborg: Result & Stats

Falkenbergs FF

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Helsingborg

10/19/2021

Superettan · Round 25Falcon Alkoholfri Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Falkenbergs FF42%

×Draw25%

Helsingborg34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Falkenbergs FFExpected goals in this matchHelsingborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.36

Falkenbergs FF

1.54

Helsingborg

1.36

Falkenbergs FF creates 13% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 81 away

1.70

creates per match

1.47

1.26

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Falkenbergs FF

1.70

Helsingborg

1.47

allows per match

Falkenbergs FF

1.26

Helsingborg

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Falkenbergs FF+0.00on par

Helsingborg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Falkenbergs FF ↓

Helsingborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Falkenbergs FF or draw

66%

Falkenbergs FF or Helsingborg

75%

Draw or Helsingborg

58%

Winning margin

Falkenbergs FF wins by 2+

21%

Helsingborg wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Falkenbergs FF 1+ goals

79%

Falkenbergs FF 2+ goals

45%

Falkenbergs FF 3+ goals

20%

Helsingborg 1+ goals

74%

Helsingborg 2+ goals

39%

Helsingborg 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Falkenbergs FF (draw refunded)

55%

Helsingborg (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Falkenbergs FF at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.26 · 54 matches

Helsingborg away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.37 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Falkenbergs FF attack 1.70 + Helsingborg defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.54

Helsingborg attack 1.47 + Falkenbergs FF defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Falkenbergs FF scores more

42%

level

25%

Helsingborg scores more

34%

Falkenbergs FF at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Falkenbergs FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff