Helmond Sport 2–0 FC Eindhoven: Result & Stats

Helmond Sport

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

FC Eindhoven

A. Van Keilegom 79'

A. van den Hurk 7'

5/3/2024

Eerste Divisie · Round 37GS Staalwerken Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Helmond Sport35%

×Draw24%

FC Eindhoven41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Helmond SportExpected goals in this matchFC Eindhoven

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.56

Helmond Sport

1.42

FC Eindhoven

1.56

FC Eindhoven creates 10% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

1.26

creates per match

1.45

1.68

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Helmond Sport

1.26

FC Eindhoven

1.45

allows per match

Helmond Sport

1.68

FC Eindhoven

1.58

+0.24scores more than expected

finishing

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

Helmond Sport+0.24scores more

FC Eindhoven-0.25scores less

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Helmond Sport ↓

FC Eindhoven →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Helmond Sport or draw

59%

Helmond Sport or FC Eindhoven

76%

Draw or FC Eindhoven

65%

Winning margin

Helmond Sport wins by 2+

16%

FC Eindhoven wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Helmond Sport 1+ goals

76%

Helmond Sport 2+ goals

41%

Helmond Sport 3+ goals

17%

FC Eindhoven 1+ goals

79%

FC Eindhoven 2+ goals

46%

FC Eindhoven 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Helmond Sport (draw refunded)

46%

FC Eindhoven (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Helmond Sport at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.68 · 8 matches

FC Eindhoven away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.58 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Helmond Sport attack 1.26 + FC Eindhoven defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.42

FC Eindhoven attack 1.45 + Helmond Sport defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Helmond Sport scores more

35%

level

24%

FC Eindhoven scores more

41%

FC Eindhoven at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FC Eindhoven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

G. Botos

Helmond Sport · M

8.2

Match Events

7'

A. van den Hurk↳ G. Botos

30'

Collin Seedorf

42'

Doke Schmidt

46'

J. Amuzu← B. Van Hove

52'

Mees Kreekels

58'

Justin Ogenia

62'

Joseph Amuzu

67'

D. Dorenbosch← A. El Bouchataoui

67'

J. Sleegers← E. Rottier

71'

A. Van Keilegom← M. Mallahi

77'

A. Priske← J. Dahlhaus

79'

A. Van Keilegom↳ G. Botos

84'

E. Lieftink← A. van den Hurk

84'

M. Ludwig← J. Schroijen

87'

Ozan Kökçü

90+3'

August Priske

90+1'

Alvaro Marin← G. Botos

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HelmondFC

Overview

51%Possession49%

12Total Shots11

7Corners6

7Fouls10

Shots

12Total Shots11

7On Target2

1Off Target9

4Blocked0

7Inside Box4

5Outside Box7

Passing

51%Possession49%

428Total Passes400

335Accurate Passes301

78%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

7Fouls10

3Yellow Cards4

3Offsides2

Eerste Divisie: Helmond Sport 2–0 FC Eindhoven

Helmond Sport beat FC Eindhoven 2-0 in Eerste Divisie on May 3, 2024.

Goals: A. van den Hurk (7'), A. Van Keilegom (79').

Helmond Sport controlled possession (51%) and registered 12 shots to 11.

The match was played at GS Staalwerken Stadion in Helmond.

Helmond Sport vs FC Eindhoven — Eerste Divisie 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eerste Divisie: Helmond Sport 2–0 FC Eindhoven