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FC Eindhoven vs Helmond Sport — Eerste Divisie 2018

FC Eindhoven
FC Eindhoven
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Helmond Sport
Helmond Sport
B. van Schuppen 84' (pen)
S. Blummel 42'
J. Scholz 68'
A. van den Hurk 5'
3/28/2025Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 32Jan Louwers Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

FC Eindhoven41%
×Draw26%
Helmond Sport33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Eindhoven
1.45
Helmond Sport
1.28

FC Eindhoven creates 13% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

FC Eindhoven
1.71
Helmond Sport
1.16

allows per match

FC Eindhoven
1.41
Helmond Sport
1.19

finishing

FC Eindhoven+0.15scores more
Helmond Sport-0.33scores less

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Eindhoven ↓

Helmond Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

FC Eindhoven or draw
67%
FC Eindhoven or Helmond Sport
74%
Draw or Helmond Sport
59%

Winning margin

FC Eindhoven wins by 2+
20%
Helmond Sport wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

FC Eindhoven 1+ goals
77%
FC Eindhoven 2+ goals
42%
FC Eindhoven 3+ goals
18%
Helmond Sport 1+ goals
72%
Helmond Sport 2+ goals
37%
Helmond Sport 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FC Eindhoven (draw refunded)
55%
Helmond Sport (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Eindhoven at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.41 · 7 matches

Helmond Sport away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.19 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Eindhoven attack 1.71 + Helmond Sport defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.45

Helmond Sport attack 1.16 + FC Eindhoven defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FC Eindhoven scores more
41%
level
26%
Helmond Sport scores more
33%

FC Eindhoven at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FC Eindhoven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
J. ScholzHelmond SportHelmond Sport · D
7.9

Match Events

5'
A. van den Hurk↳ T. Pachonik
15'
Redouane Halhal
31'
Theo Golliard
32'
Collin Seedorf
42'
S. Blummel↳ D. Huisman
48'
Dyon Dorenbosch
61'
S. Simons← D. Huisman
61'
H. Ingason← A. van den Hurk
62'
T. Douglas← C. Seedorf
68'
J. Scholz↳ T. Golliard
72'
A. Van Himbeeck← T. Golliard
72'
J. Ogenia← T. Essakkati
84'
B. van SchuppenPenalty
85'
T. Simons← J. Sleegers
90+1'
Boris van Schuppen
90'
S. Bisselink← L. Daneels

Possession

54%FC

Shots

8FC

Pass accuracy

50%FC

Statistics

FCHelmond
Overview
54%Possession46%
8Total Shots12
3Corners4
17Fouls18
Shots
8Total Shots12
4On Target5
3Off Target6
1Blocked1
6Inside Box7
2Outside Box5
Passing
54%Possession46%
484Total Passes416
374Accurate Passes324
77%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
17Fouls18
3Yellow Cards2
1Offsides1

Match Recap: FC Eindhoven vs Helmond Sport

FC Eindhoven and Helmond Sport drew 2-2 in Eerste Divisie on March 28, 2025.

Goals: A. van den Hurk (5'), S. Blummel (42'), J. Scholz (68'), B. van Schuppen (84' pen).

FC Eindhoven controlled possession (54%) and registered 8 shots to 12.

The match was played at Jan Louwers Stadion in Eindhoven.