Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Helmond Sport vs Emmen — Eerste Divisie 2018

Helmond Sport
Helmond Sport
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Emmen
Emmen
2/24/2025Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 21Stadion De Braak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Helmond Sport38%
×Draw25%
Emmen37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Helmond Sport
1.44
Emmen
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 148 home / 76 away

creates per match

Helmond Sport
1.39
Emmen
1.30

allows per match

Helmond Sport
1.51
Emmen
1.50

finishing

Helmond Sport+0.00on par
Emmen+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Helmond Sport ↓

Emmen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Helmond Sport or draw
63%
Helmond Sport or Emmen
75%
Draw or Emmen
62%

Winning margin

Helmond Sport wins by 2+
18%
Emmen wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Helmond Sport 1+ goals
76%
Helmond Sport 2+ goals
42%
Helmond Sport 3+ goals
18%
Emmen 1+ goals
76%
Emmen 2+ goals
41%
Emmen 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Helmond Sport (draw refunded)
51%
Emmen (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Helmond Sport at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.51 · 148 matches

Emmen away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.50 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Helmond Sport attack 1.39 + Emmen defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.44

Emmen attack 1.30 + Helmond Sport defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Helmond Sport scores more
38%
level
25%
Emmen scores more
37%

Helmond Sport at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Helmond Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Helmond Sport vs Emmen

Emmen beat Helmond Sport 2-1 in Eerste Divisie on February 24, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion De Braak in Helmond.