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Emmen vs Helmond Sport — Eerste Divisie 2018

Emmen
Emmen
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Helmond Sport
Helmond Sport
12/12/2025Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 20De Oude Meerdijk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Emmen56%
×Draw22%
Helmond Sport21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Emmen
1.89
Helmond Sport
1.07

Emmen creates 77% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 147 away

creates per match

Emmen
1.82
Helmond Sport
0.90

allows per match

Emmen
1.25
Helmond Sport
1.95

finishing

Emmen+0.00on par
Helmond Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emmen ↓

Helmond Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Emmen or draw
79%
Emmen or Helmond Sport
78%
Draw or Helmond Sport
44%

Winning margin

Emmen wins by 2+
33%
Helmond Sport wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Emmen 1+ goals
85%
Emmen 2+ goals
56%
Emmen 3+ goals
29%
Helmond Sport 1+ goals
66%
Helmond Sport 2+ goals
29%
Helmond Sport 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Emmen (draw refunded)
73%
Helmond Sport (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emmen at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.25 · 76 matches

Helmond Sport away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.95 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emmen attack 1.82 + Helmond Sport defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.89

Helmond Sport attack 0.90 + Emmen defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Emmen scores more
56%
level
22%
Helmond Sport scores more
21%

Emmen at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Emmen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Emmen vs Helmond Sport

Emmen beat Helmond Sport 4-1 in Eerste Divisie on December 12, 2025.

The match was played at De Oude Meerdijk in Emmen.